A Milestone in Arctic Sovereignty? Trump’s New Arctic Strategy Shaping Greenland’s Future as an Independent State

Greenland is crucial for the U.S. military and its ballistic missile early-warning system since the shortest route from Europe to North America runs via the island. US President-elect Donald Trump has suggested buying Greenland from Denmark — a proposal he made in 2019 during his first term – and reiterated in December 2024, calling the U.S. acquiring the Arctic territory an ‘absolute necessity’. Trump openly suggested he wouldn’t rule out using economic or military pressure to secure the mineral-rich autonomous territory. The provocative assertion has also reignited debates about the island’s strategic importance and its role in Arctic geopolitics. Recently, Republican representatives introduced the ‘Make Greenland Great Again Act’. The bill would let Trump begin negotiations with the Kingdom of Denmark over Greenland’s purchase on the afternoon of his January 20th inauguration.

Not everyone fully supports Trump’s ambitions. In Greenland, opinions on the island’s future appear divided, with some warmly welcoming Trump’s remarks and others responding skeptically. On the one hand, Greenland’s Prime Minister Múte Egede spoke alongside Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen and rejected the idea of annexing by Washington. ‘Greenland is for the Greenlandic people. We do not want to be Danish; we do not want to be American. We want to be Greenlandic’, Egede said, meaning that the use of the lad is Greenland’s business. While he acknowledged the island’s strategic importance and mineral wealth, he expressed the desire for independence. On the other hand, he lately said that ‘Greenland is ready to work with the US on defense’. In addition, Denmark’s foreign minister said they are ready to work with Greenland to continue the discussion with Trump and ‘to ensure legitimate American interests’ in the Arctic.

However, the turbulence over the island’s political status did a lot to address the Greenlandic people’s growing aspirations for independence. The Patriot Polling surveyed 416 people residing across Greenland to monitor their current support for American control over their territory. The survey found that a substantial majority of Greenlandic residents support ‘joining’ the United States. However, the survey should be regarded with a pinch of salt, as it was taken during the time that this poll was conducted when Donald Trump Jr. visited Greenland. Most of the people who were present during his visit were people advocating for his idea of ‘Make Greenland Great Again’. According to experts, Besides the limited sample (416 people), MAGA hats were handed out for the sake of pictures and did not reflect the views of the local community.

Image: Nuuk Cathedral, also known as the Cathedral of Our Savior, as well as Annaassisitta Oqaluffia, is a wooden Lutheran cathedral that sits in the old town (Source: Zsanett Gréta Papp)

The contemporary Greenlandic independence debate

Greenland’s population, predominantly descended from Inuit peoples, has long maintained a distinct identity despite Denmark’s sovereignty. ‘It is now time to take the next step for our country’, Greenland’s Prime Minister Múte Egede, who has led Greenland since 2021 and hails from the pro-independence Community of the People (Inuit Ataqatigiit, IA) party. ‘Denmark’s relations with Greenland had not created “full equality”, and the island deserves to represent itself on the world stage’, he added. Although its 2009 self-governing framework has already granted significant autonomy, including the right to declare independence via a referendum, this ambition remains deeply intertwined with economic and geopolitical considerations. Each year, Greenland receives a block grant of approximately 3.9 billion Danish kroner(around 520 million euros) from Denmark, which accounts for about two-thirds of its government budget, approx. 20% of the island’s GDP. This financial support is crucial for the territory’s ability to maintain essential public services, such as healthcare, education, and infrastructure development.

Currently, Greenland’s economy is heavily reliant on fisheries, tourism, and the block grant from Denmark. For many Greenlanders, particularly those advocating for independence, this financial reliance is a point of contention. Greenland’s historical experience with Denmark’s economic influence dates to 1973 when it joined the European Community (EC) under the Kingdom of Denmark. However, the island left the EC in 1985, based on the first referendum they held, largely due to policies that constrained the local fishing industry, a vital sector for Greenland’s economy. While there is growing support for independence among the Greenlandic population, economic stability remains a major concern. ‘The wish for independence from Denmark has never been stronger’, mentioned Arctic Economic Council Executive Director Mads Qvist Frederiksen. But he also warned that to achieve economic independence, reforms need to happen first. These changes include building out the island’s infrastructure; developing a private investment risk-based economic model; and improving the education system in Greenland, where currently more than 50% of the population only has a lower-secondary level education.

Image: Norwegian hikers exploring the fjords with the captain (Source: Zsanett Gréta Papp)

Greenland is pivotal in the Arctic, a region undergoing rapid transformation due to climate change and evolving geopolitical dynamics. As Arctic ice recedes, new shipping routes and access to untapped resources have heightened international interest. Greenland’s natural wealth, including rare earth minerals and hydrocarbons, has attracted attention from global powers such as the United States, China, and the EU. Expanding the mining sector and tourism are indeed pivotal industries for Greenland’s future growth, attracting significant international investor interest. Consequently, they are central to the current government’s economic diversification strategy. In this context, China’s and the EU’s potential roles and infrastructure interests are particularly crucial. It is now clear to the EU that the Arctic, and particularly Greenland can provide Europe with knowledge, products, resources, and energy which are crucial for achieving the EU’s climate goals.

The discourse around Greenlandic independence is a complex interplay of cultural identity, economic viability, and geopolitical considerations. Most of the decision-makers and the general public are in favor of independence. However, the trajectory towards autonomy in Greenland has experienced significant fluctuations in public sentiment over the past two decades. In 2002, approximately 61% of Greenlanders supported independence. By 2017, this figure had declined to 44%. A 2019 poll conducted by the universities of Copenhagen and Greenland revealed that approximately 67.7% of Greenlanders support independence from Denmark within the next two decades. Additionally, the survey indicated that 38.4% would support immediate independence, while 45.7% favored independence within a decade. Moreover, 43.5% of the 67.7% who support the vision of independence also believe that secession from Denmark will have ‘positive’ or even ‘very positive’ effects on Greenland’s economy.

This renewed momentum was further evidenced in the 2021 parliamentary elections, where the pro-independence party Inuit Ataqatigiit secured a decisive victory, obtaining 37% of the vote compared to 30% for the ruling Siumut party. These developments highlight a complex and evolving landscape of public opinion in Greenland regarding independence, influenced by various political, economic, and social factors. The current Greenlandic government not only emphasized sovereignty but also prioritized environmental stewardship, aligning Greenland’s aspirations with global climate objectives such as the Paris Agreement. This alignment has positioned Greenland as a potential leader in sustainable development and Arctic governance. Thus, Greenland’s pro-independence movement has gained momentum in recent years.

Image: Greenlandic Inuits with indigenous national costumes (Source: US Consulate in Nuuk, Facebook)

Tandem: general elections and a potential new referendum on full independence

In November 2016, Greenland’s parliament, the Inatsisartut, initiated the drafting of a constitution, a significant step toward independence from Denmark. This process was celebrated as a continuation of Greenland’s journey toward sovereignty, building upon the 1979 Home Rule and 2009 Self Rule agreements. The draft constitution, published in April 2023 after six years of development, marks a crucial step in shaping Greenland’s future as an independent state. It has also served as a reference for Prime Minister Múte Bourup Egede’s statements todays.

According to the draft constitution, Greenland would adopt a parliamentary republic model, with the chairman of Naalakkersuisut (the government) as Head of State, rejecting the Danish monarchy’s role after over 300 years of Danish rule. The draft includes provisions for potential ‘free association’ with Denmark or another state. This arrangement could allow Greenland to receive external support in areas like defense, health, and monetary policy while maintaining sovereignty. It also emphasizes Greenland’s Inuit heritage and collective ownership of land, sea, and resources. It also enshrines equal rights for all citizens, regardless of ethnicity, reflecting a balanced approach to inclusivity and cultural identity.

The draft is designed to spark nationwide discussions on Greenland’s future statehood, with debates expected across the country’s 57,000 inhabitants. On the one hand, former Inuit Ataqatigiit leader Sara Olsvig highlighted its potential to guide legislative reforms, particularly in fisheries and resource management, and to establish a Greenland-specific legal framework. On the other hand, Pele Broberg of the Naleraq party criticized the draft as ‘stillborn’, arguing for an expert-driven process and expressing frustration over political reluctance to expedite independence. While the draft constitution represents a significant milestone, the path to independence remains uncertain.

Despite Greenland’s economic dependence on Denmark, there are developments supporting its path towards independence. Greenland’s active participation in global climate diplomacy was highlighted in November 2023 when it solidified its role under the Paris Agreement. By taking steps to align its policies with international climate goals, Greenland demonstrated its capacity to independently engage in international agreements. This marked a pivotal moment, as it underscored Greenland’s commitment to global issues and its growing international profile. Moreover, in March 2024, Greenland reinforced its connection with the European Union by establishing an EU Greenland Office. This initiative strengthened cooperation in areas such as trade, research, and environmental sustainability. The move symbolized a deepened relationship with the EU, which has historically been a key partner due to shared interests in Arctic affairs, fisheries, and climate policy.

Image: Urban landscape of Nuuk (Source: Zsanett Gréta Papp)

In addition, Greenland’s strategic ties with the U.S. reached a new milestone in April 2023 when the Americans renamed the Thule Airbase to the Pituffik Space Base. This change reflected Greenland’s increasing importance in global security and space exploration, as the base plays a critical role in monitoring Arctic activities and advancing space-based operations, including ballistic missile threats. The renaming also signaled respect for Greenlandic heritage, as ‘Pituffik’ is an indigenous name, meaning ‘the place the dogs are tied’. 

In December 2024, Greenland opened its new international airport in Nuuk with direct flight routes connecting the U.S. and Europe. This improved Greenland’s global accessibility, and boosted tourism, business, and cultural exchanges. Enhanced connectivity strengthens also Greenland’s global presence and its viability as an independent nation. These developments collectively demonstrate Greenland’s proactive steps toward greater international engagement and self-reliance, bolstering its aspirations for independence while addressing economic and geopolitical challenges. The 2024 foreign policy strategy outlines ambitious goals to address these challenges. ‘Greenland in the World — Nothing about us without us’, aims to form stronger ties with Arctic North America and hold a leading role in the Arctic Council. Priorities such as diversifying the economy, fostering international partnerships, and leveraging Greenland’s unique position in Arctic governance. These efforts aim to create a viable foundation for independence, balancing economic development with environmental sustainability.

In his New Year’s address, Egede emphasized the necessity of shaping Greenland’s future independently, highlighting the importance of self-determination in the face of external pressures. Egede’s rhetoric reflects a broader Greenlandic sentiment, rooted in a historical struggle for agency and recognition on the global stage. The concept of self-determination has long been a significant factor in the dynamics between indigenous communities and colonial powers. At the same time, China’s Arctic ambitions further complicate the picture. Beijing has identified itself as a ‘near-Arctic state’ and has heavily invested in Arctic research and infrastructure. Greenland, with its vast resources, represents a critical element in China’s Polar Silk Road initiative. While Chinese investments in mining and infrastructure projects have been welcomed by some, they have also raised concerns about sovereignty and overreliance on external actors.

Image: American Corner at the University of Greenland (Source: Zsanett Gréta Papp)

Donald Trump’s aspiration of occupying Greenland clearly pushes the Greenlandic independence, as ‘a signal that independence is now a clear goal’. Aleqa Hammond, Greenland’s first female Prime Minister opposes American dominance entirely by saying that ‘He [Trump] is treating us like a good he can purchase’, also mentioning that ‘He is not even talking to Greenland – he is talking to Denmark about buying Greenland’. In light of these developments, Egede has indicated that a potential referendum on full independence could take place as early as April 2025, alongside the general elections. A referendum – based on the previous three referendums – would ultimately decide Greenland’s sovereignty, with ongoing public and parliamentary debates shaping the journey. Critics and proponents alike agree that Trump’s aspirations have catalyzed a vital conversation about Greenland’s future, even as questions about timing and feasibility persist. However, the island’s future as an independent nation would require formal recognition by the international community, particularly the United Nations, to ensure it can operate as a sovereign state.

A defining momentum: the upcoming general elections in 2025

The parliamentary elections scheduled before April 6, 2025, could serve as a watershed moment in Greenland’s political evolution. These elections will likely gauge public support for independence and shape the island’s foreign policy trajectory. A strong mandate for pro-independence parties could accelerate efforts to hold a referendum, bringing Greenland closer to realizing its aspirations. Under a 2009 agreement with Denmark, Greenland can declare independence only after a successful referendum — which Egede appeared to hint at holding in tandem with the island’s upcoming general election in April. Egede stated that ‘Work has already begun on creating the framework for Greenland as an independent state’, and that ‘It is necessary to take major steps… The upcoming new election period must, together with the citizens, create these new steps. While Inuit Ataqatigiit remains a dominant force, the economic and social implications of independence will likely dominate the campaign discourse.

Greenland’s journey towards self-determination exemplifies the complexities of autonomy in a globalized world. Greenland’s chosen path will serve as a testament to the enduring pursuit of self-determination in the immensely changing Arctic geopolitical landscape. As the island grapples with the dual imperatives of economic sustainability and cultural identity, its decisions will resonate far beyond its borders. The international community, particularly the U.S., China, and Denmark, will undoubtedly monitor these developments closely. For Western nations, independence could amplify vulnerabilities, enabling external powers to exploit Greenland’s mineral wealth and erode Western influence in the Arctic. Trump’s focus on securing U.S. strategic dominance is driven from the fears of Beijing gaining a foothold in Greenland’s mining sector. Yet the same strategic focus may give a substantive boost to Greenlandic self-determination cause. Future will tell us which calculus prevails – ‘Make Greenland Great Again’ or ‘give indigenous people a voice again’.

Author: Zsanett Gréta Papp